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Jim O'Donnel
Editor & Publisher
Jamaica
Beach Weather Observatory
Daily E-Mail Weather Alert & Forecast Blog
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Prepared at 1:20 pm CDT
TODAY'S HEADLINES
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at:Daily E-Mail Weather Alert & Forecast Blog
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Prepared at 1:20 pm CDT
TODAY'S HEADLINES
Ike is potentially the most destructive
hurricane to threaten
the upper Texas coast since Hurricane Carla which made
landfall 47 years ago today...September 11, 1961...and since
the 1900 and 1915 hurricanes....all of which were Category
Four at the time of their landfall on the upper Texas coast.
————————
The Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory is significantly
upgrading its forecast this morning for the possibility of
major to potentially catastrophic damage on the west end
of Galveston Island due to the combination of extremely
high storm surge of 13 to 20 feet above normal tide level,
destructive wave action and sustained hurricane force
winds of 115 to 130 mph with gusts of 140 to 155 mph.
Expected damage will include many complete structural
failures and many structures damaged beyond repair
as well as severe damage to the beach dune system.
ANY PERSON REMAINING BEHIND TO RIDE OUT
THIS HURRICANE ON WEST GALVESTON ISLAND
WILL BE FACING ALMOST CERTAIN DEATH!!!
————————
The Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory will cease
operations later tonight before tides reach 5 feet.
Due to the possibility of extreme damage or even total
destruction of the weather station and utility failures,
it is unknown when (or if) we will be able to reopen.
————————
A mandatory evacuation order is now in effect for all of
Galveston Island including the cities of Galveston and
Jamaica Beach and also for the Galveston County
communities of San Leon, Bacliff, Bayou Vista, Omega
Bay, Freddiesville, Tiki Island, the Bolivar Peninsula,
Kemah and Clear Lake Shores. Persons in these
communities should evacuate as soon as possible
before tides reach 5 feet and winds increase to tropical
storm force which will be late tonight/Friday morning.
————————
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Houston/Galveston
area and also includes: Victoria, Calhoun, Jackson,
Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Harris, Chambers,
Liberty, Jefferson and Orange Counties along the upper
Texas coast. An Inland Hurricane Wind Watch is in
effect for the remainder of inland Southeast Texas and
includes: Fort Bend, Wharton, Colorado, Waller, Austin,
Montgomery, Grimes, Washington, Burleson, Brazos,
Madison, San Jacinto, Walker, Polk, Trinity and Houston
Counties. Hurricane force winds are expected across
the entire Southeast Texas region as Ike makes landfall.
————————
Hurricane Ike is expected to make landfall between
Sargent Beach and San Luis Pass along the Brazoria
County coastline late Friday night or early Saturday
morning. This will essentially be a direct hit for the
west end of Galveston Island and will place all of
Galveston Island...Galveston County...Harris County
including the city of Houston...Brazoria County and
Fort Bend County in the path of Ike's maximum winds.
There will be extremely heavy damage in the Houston
area from downed trees and utility lines, roof damage
and flooding from torrential rainfall. Tides of up to
15 to 20 feet above normal are possible along the shore
of Galveston Bay, Clear Lake and the Houson Ship
Channel in Galveston, Harris and Chambers Counties.
At the time of landfall, Ike is expected to be a borderline
Category Three/Four hurricane with max sustained
winds of 125 to 135 mph with gusts of 155 mph.
The Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory needs your
help to keep the blog, web cam and web site operating.
the upper Texas coast since Hurricane Carla which made
landfall 47 years ago today...September 11, 1961...and since
the 1900 and 1915 hurricanes....all of which were Category
Four at the time of their landfall on the upper Texas coast.
————————
The Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory is significantly
upgrading its forecast this morning for the possibility of
major to potentially catastrophic damage on the west end
of Galveston Island due to the combination of extremely
high storm surge of 13 to 20 feet above normal tide level,
destructive wave action and sustained hurricane force
winds of 115 to 130 mph with gusts of 140 to 155 mph.
Expected damage will include many complete structural
failures and many structures damaged beyond repair
as well as severe damage to the beach dune system.
ANY PERSON REMAINING BEHIND TO RIDE OUT
THIS HURRICANE ON WEST GALVESTON ISLAND
WILL BE FACING ALMOST CERTAIN DEATH!!!
————————
The Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory will cease
operations later tonight before tides reach 5 feet.
Due to the possibility of extreme damage or even total
destruction of the weather station and utility failures,
it is unknown when (or if) we will be able to reopen.
————————
A mandatory evacuation order is now in effect for all of
Galveston Island including the cities of Galveston and
Jamaica Beach and also for the Galveston County
communities of San Leon, Bacliff, Bayou Vista, Omega
Bay, Freddiesville, Tiki Island, the Bolivar Peninsula,
Kemah and Clear Lake Shores. Persons in these
communities should evacuate as soon as possible
before tides reach 5 feet and winds increase to tropical
storm force which will be late tonight/Friday morning.
————————
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Houston/Galveston
area and also includes: Victoria, Calhoun, Jackson,
Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Harris, Chambers,
Liberty, Jefferson and Orange Counties along the upper
Texas coast. An Inland Hurricane Wind Watch is in
effect for the remainder of inland Southeast Texas and
includes: Fort Bend, Wharton, Colorado, Waller, Austin,
Montgomery, Grimes, Washington, Burleson, Brazos,
Madison, San Jacinto, Walker, Polk, Trinity and Houston
Counties. Hurricane force winds are expected across
the entire Southeast Texas region as Ike makes landfall.
————————
Hurricane Ike is expected to make landfall between
Sargent Beach and San Luis Pass along the Brazoria
County coastline late Friday night or early Saturday
morning. This will essentially be a direct hit for the
west end of Galveston Island and will place all of
Galveston Island...Galveston County...Harris County
including the city of Houston...Brazoria County and
Fort Bend County in the path of Ike's maximum winds.
There will be extremely heavy damage in the Houston
area from downed trees and utility lines, roof damage
and flooding from torrential rainfall. Tides of up to
15 to 20 feet above normal are possible along the shore
of Galveston Bay, Clear Lake and the Houson Ship
Channel in Galveston, Harris and Chambers Counties.
At the time of landfall, Ike is expected to be a borderline
Category Three/Four hurricane with max sustained
winds of 125 to 135 mph with gusts of 155 mph.
The Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory needs your
help to keep the blog, web cam and web site operating.
weatheralert@jbwo.org
U.S. Surface Analysis
click on the image to enlarge its size
Texas Infrared Satellite Photo
click on the image to enlarge its size
NWS Doppler Radar Loop
click on the image to enlarge its size
JBWO Weather Synopsis & Forecast
for the Houston/Galveston Metropolitan area
IKE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE TO THE
WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND
MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE TO THE
WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND
Of all the times I
have written my thoughts in this blog, it has never been more difficult
for me than this morning. Hurricane Ike has the potential to
produce major
to catastrophic damage to the west end of Galveston Island
including here at the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory. I know
many of you reading this are in the same predicament as me and I
sincerely wish all of you the very best of luck with your own situation.
By now, you have read the headlines I wrote at the top of this blog. Some of you may have already heard some of this new forecast information from other sources. Other may be seeing it for the first time and I sincerely apologize for the shock of what you are reading.
There is no way to minimize or mitigate the news of the potential severity of this hurricane. I just cannot emphasize enough how dangerous this situation is and how much damage could result. If Hurricane Ike makes landfall as projected...Brazoria, Galveston and Harris Counties will essentially take a direct hit and if the projected intensity is correct as a borderline Category Three/Four (or stronger) hurricane, we are looking at the most intense hurricane to threaten this area since Hurricane Carla in 1961 and since the 1900 and 1915 hurricanes
Your eyes are not deceiving you. I am now forecasting a storm surge of 13 to 20 feet on the west end of Galveston Island. It will be toward the lower end of that range if landfall occurs in western Brazoria County and at the higher end of that range if the hurricane makes landfall closer to San Luis Pass. What does that actually mean? Let's do the math. The average ground and road elevation on the west end of Galveston Island ranges from 3 to 10 feet with most places about 4 to 5 feet in elevation. You simply take your elevation, then subtract it from the expected storm surge and you will have the actual depth of water over the ground. For example, if we have a 15 foot storm surge over ground that is 5 feet above sea level, then 10 feet of water will cover the ground. But, you also have to add the wave heights on top of that to get the true water level and that can vary anywhere from a few feet to as much as 10 feet or more.
Over the years, I have literally spoken to hundreds (maybe thousands) of coastal residents about what their house can and cannot endure from various categories of hurricanes. Most people usually start off telling me that their house was built to withstand "x" number of miles per hour of wind. More often than not, they have never even considered what saltwater (storm surge) will do to the structure.
A cubic yard (3 ft X 3 ft X 3 ft) of saltwater weighs approximately 1,800 pounds. That's almost a ton. Imagine how much the entire Gulf of Mexico or Galveston Bay weighs when it's smashing against a structure. When that happens, whatever wind speed that structure was designed for becomes a moot point. Almost no residential structure is designed to withstand that kind of assault from both water and wind.
Tides are already rising quickly here on west Galveston Island. At 9:00 AM CDT...the tide was 3.18 ft above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) which is 2.08 ft above the predicted astronomical (normal) tide. The tide is already well over the bulkhead and boat dock at the weather station.
Mandatory evacuations are in effect for a number of coastal communities including all of Galveston Island and the city of Jamaica Beach. The Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory will cease operations late tonight before tides reach 5 feet.
By now, you have read the headlines I wrote at the top of this blog. Some of you may have already heard some of this new forecast information from other sources. Other may be seeing it for the first time and I sincerely apologize for the shock of what you are reading.
There is no way to minimize or mitigate the news of the potential severity of this hurricane. I just cannot emphasize enough how dangerous this situation is and how much damage could result. If Hurricane Ike makes landfall as projected...Brazoria, Galveston and Harris Counties will essentially take a direct hit and if the projected intensity is correct as a borderline Category Three/Four (or stronger) hurricane, we are looking at the most intense hurricane to threaten this area since Hurricane Carla in 1961 and since the 1900 and 1915 hurricanes
Your eyes are not deceiving you. I am now forecasting a storm surge of 13 to 20 feet on the west end of Galveston Island. It will be toward the lower end of that range if landfall occurs in western Brazoria County and at the higher end of that range if the hurricane makes landfall closer to San Luis Pass. What does that actually mean? Let's do the math. The average ground and road elevation on the west end of Galveston Island ranges from 3 to 10 feet with most places about 4 to 5 feet in elevation. You simply take your elevation, then subtract it from the expected storm surge and you will have the actual depth of water over the ground. For example, if we have a 15 foot storm surge over ground that is 5 feet above sea level, then 10 feet of water will cover the ground. But, you also have to add the wave heights on top of that to get the true water level and that can vary anywhere from a few feet to as much as 10 feet or more.
Over the years, I have literally spoken to hundreds (maybe thousands) of coastal residents about what their house can and cannot endure from various categories of hurricanes. Most people usually start off telling me that their house was built to withstand "x" number of miles per hour of wind. More often than not, they have never even considered what saltwater (storm surge) will do to the structure.
A cubic yard (3 ft X 3 ft X 3 ft) of saltwater weighs approximately 1,800 pounds. That's almost a ton. Imagine how much the entire Gulf of Mexico or Galveston Bay weighs when it's smashing against a structure. When that happens, whatever wind speed that structure was designed for becomes a moot point. Almost no residential structure is designed to withstand that kind of assault from both water and wind.
Tides are already rising quickly here on west Galveston Island. At 9:00 AM CDT...the tide was 3.18 ft above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) which is 2.08 ft above the predicted astronomical (normal) tide. The tide is already well over the bulkhead and boat dock at the weather station.
Mandatory evacuations are in effect for a number of coastal communities including all of Galveston Island and the city of Jamaica Beach. The Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory will cease operations late tonight before tides reach 5 feet.
JAMAICA
BEACH WEATHER OBSERVATORY
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST FOR GALVESTON ISLAND
Forecast Location of Landfall: between Sargent and San Luis Pass
Landfall Intensity: Category Three/Four hurricane 125/135 mph winds, gusts 155 mph
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST FOR GALVESTON ISLAND
Forecast Location of Landfall: between Sargent and San Luis Pass
Landfall Intensity: Category Three/Four hurricane 125/135 mph winds, gusts 155 mph
- STORM SURGE: 13 to 20 feet
above normal tide level depending on landfall location of the eye.
A landfall location closer to Sargent will result in lower tides while
a landfall location closer to San Luis Pass will result in higher
tides. Maximum tide will occur between 10:00 pm Friday evening
and 6:00 am Saturday morning. Major to catastrophic destruction
from storm surge and wave action. Complete destruction of many
structures on the west end of the island and many structures heavily
damaged beyond repair. Many residences will be reduced to a
foundation slab with all construction materials washed away into West
Bay or the Gulf of Mexico and nothing remaining behind but
pilings. Almost every boat dock, boat house and elevated patio
deck destroyed. In the city of Galveston behind the seawall,
major storm surge flooding in the downtown area from Galveston
Bay. Some possibility of storm surge overtopping the Galveston
seawall with high breakers crashing over the seawall to a height of 40
to 50 feet throughout the hurricane. Many subdivisions near the
airport and Offatts Bayou flooded by storm surge.
- MAXIMUM WINDS:
Maximum
sustained winds of 115 to 130 mph with peak gusts of 140 to 155 mph.
Major to severe wind damage to all structures with many roofs heavily
damaged or blown off as well as walls blown in on frame residences all
across the island but especially on elevated west end bay and beach
homes.
Further details on Hurricane Ike including the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center, satellite photos, map graphics and computer forecast models are contained in the Tropical Weather section below.
JBWO WEATHER FORECAST
for Galveston Island and beaches
from Freeport to High Island
—————————
...HURRICANE
WARNING IN EFFECT...
Please
see section one.
JBWO WEATHER FORECAST
for mainland Galveston Co., inland Brazoria Co. and Harris Co. bay area
—————————
...HURRICANE
WARNING IN EFFECT...
Please
see section one.
JBWO WEATHER FORECAST
for Metro Houston, inland Harris Co,
Fort Bend/Waller/Montgomery/Liberty Co.
—————————
...HURRICANE
WARNING IN EFFECT...
Please
see section one.
The Fishing Report
by Jim O'Donnel
No fishing reports have been received during the past week.
If you have a recent fishing report or photo you'd like to share, please send an e-mail to weatheralert@jbwo.org and your report will be posted here. Please be as specfic as you can with date/time, location, live bait or artificials used, etc. I may also post some good seafood recipes here in the future. So, if you have a good one, please send it to me and I'll be glad to share it.
Jamaica Beach Climate Data
Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
on Tuesday, September 9, 2008
High temperature..... 87º
F
Low temperature...... 80º F
Rainfall............. 0.00 in.
Month to date........ 0.01 in.
Year to date......... 21.87 in.
Peak wind gust....... NE 20 mph
Low temperature...... 80º F
Rainfall............. 0.00 in.
Month to date........ 0.01 in.
Year to date......... 21.87 in.
Peak wind gust....... NE 20 mph
Galveston Climate Data
Scholes International Airport
on Tuesday, September 9, 2008
High
temperature..... 88º F
Low temperature...... 76º F
Rainfall............. 0.33 in.
Month to date........ 0.33 in.
Year to date......... 21.09 in.
Peak wind gust....... E 24 mph
Low temperature...... 76º F
Rainfall............. 0.33 in.
Month to date........ 0.33 in.
Year to date......... 21.09 in.
Peak wind gust....... E 24 mph
Houston Climate Data
Bush Intercontinental Airport
on Tuesday, September 9, 2008
High
temperature..... 93º F
Low temperature...... 73º F
Rainfall............. 0.00 in.
Month to date........ 0.08 in.
Year to date......... 27.74 in.
Peak wind gust....... SE 18 mph
Low temperature...... 73º F
Rainfall............. 0.00 in.
Month to date........ 0.08 in.
Year to date......... 27.74 in.
Peak wind gust....... SE 18 mph
JBWO Marine Forecast & Tides for the Upper Texas Coast
Freeport to High Island including Galveston Bay
(marine warnings in red text are issued by the National Weather Service)
Marine Synopsis:
Lower Galveston Bay
West Bay and East Bay
Lower Houston Ship Channel
Port of Galveston/Port of Texas City
(south of Eagle Point to Smith Point)
—————————
Upper Galveston Bay
Trinity Bay and Clear Lake
Upper Houston Ship Channel
Port of Houston/Bayport Terminal
(north of Eagle Point to Smith Point)
—————————
Gulf of Mexico
Nearshore and Offshore Waters
from Freeport to High Island
(beaches out to 50 NM offshore)
—————————
The Daily Almanac & Beach Information
This morning's water temperature in the Galveston Island surf: 85º
Sunrise: 7:05 am CDT Sunset: 7:31 pm CDT
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
West Bay at Jamaica Beach
for Thursday, September 11, 2008
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
San Luis Pass
for Thursday, September 11, 2008
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
Galveston - Flagship Pier
for Thursday, September 11, 2008
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
Galveston Channel - South Jetty
for Thursday, September 11, 2008
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
Galveston Channel - Pier 21
for Thursday, September 11, 2008
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
Clear Lake Entrance at Kemah
for Thursday, September 11, 2008
Tropical Weather Discussion and Outlook
for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Ike
over the Gulf of
Mexico approaching the Texas coast
NOAA GOES-E enhanced
infrared
satellite photo of Hurricane Ike
NOAA GOES-E visible
satellite photo of Hurricane Ike
National Hurricane Center Probability of Hurricane Force Winds (next 5 days) for Hurricane Ike
National Hurricane Center Probability of Tropical Storm Force Winds (next 5 days) for Hurricane Ike
National Hurricane Center Watches/Warnings and Official 5-Day Forecast Track for Hurricane Ike
National Hurricane Center Probability of Hurricane Force Winds (next 5 days) for Hurricane Ike
National Hurricane Center Probability of Tropical Storm Force Winds (next 5 days) for Hurricane Ike
National Hurricane Center Watches/Warnings and Official 5-Day Forecast Track for Hurricane Ike
Computer
forecast model predictions for the track of Hurricane Ike
during
the next 5 days
NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES
Hurricane
Ike
Public Advisory
Tropical
Cyclone Discussion Forecast/Advisory
Wind
Speed Probabilities
ICAO Aviation Advisory Tropical Cyclone Updates Watch/Warning Breakpoints Position Estimates
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL STATEMENTS
Hurricane Ike
NWS Brownsville TX NWS Corpus Christi TX NWS Houston/Galveston TX NWS Lake Charles LA
NWS Slidell LA