Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory - Daily E-Mail Weather Alert & Forecast Blog

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Jim O'Donnel
Editor & Publisher

Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
Daily E-Mail Weather Alert & Forecast Blog

Sunday, September 7, 2008
Prepared at 11:30 am CDT

TODAY'S HEADLINES

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for much of eastern Cuba,
most of the central and southeastern Bahamas and for the
Turks & Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
much of central Cuba, Andros Island in the Bahamas and
the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward to the Dry
Tortugas including the city of Key West. A Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for the northern coast of Haiti and a
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands.
————————
Hurricane Ike is an extremely dangerous Category Four
hurricane packing maximum sustained winds of 135 mph
and gusts to 160 mph. The hurricane is expected to make
landfall over eastern Cuba early Monday morning and then
traverse the backbone of the island for about 36 hours
while weakening to Category One intensity. Thereafter,
Ike is expected to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico on Tuesday afternoon and slowly restrengthen.
Ike is forecast to be a Category Three major hurricane
with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and gusts to
140 mph as it very slowly approaches the Texas or
Louisiana coast next weekend. All persons along the
upper Texas coast should monitor the latest information
and forecasts on this potentially dangerous hurricane.
————————
NEW TODAY...NFL WEEK #1 FOOTBALL PICKS!!!

The Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory needs your
help to keep the blog, web cam and web site operating.

Subscribe to this blog FREE by e-mail at:

weatheralert@jbwo.org

U.S. Surface Analysis
click on the image to enlarge its size

Texas Infrared Satellite Photo
click on the image to enlarge its size

NWS Doppler Radar Loop
click on the image to enlarge its size

JBWO Weather Synopsis & Forecast
for the Houston/Galveston Metropolitan area

A WARM FRONT IS ABOUT TO RETURN OUR HUMIDITY
AND HURRICANE IKE COULD APPROACH THE TEXAS OR
LOUISIANA COAST NEXT WEEKEND

A northward moving warm front just off the upper Texas coast will move through the local area this afternoon or this evening switching our winds around to a more onshore direction. The net result of this will be a noticeable increase in humidity and possibly some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Our attention for the better part of next week will be increasingly focused on Hurricane Ike and I'm sorry to have to report to you today that there are increasing indications that Ike may be headed to our part of the Gulf of Mexico. Although it is entirely too early to speculate on an eventual point of landfall, it is looking more and more like that eventual place will be Texas or Louisiana.

The latest official forecast track of Hurricane Ike from the National Hurricane Center takes the storm on a more southerly path than was indicated yesterday. Instead of going through the Florida Straits, Ike is now expected to make landfall in Cuba and then traverse the backbone of the island before emerging into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near Havana, Cuba on Tuesday afternoon. Then, Ike is expected to take an extremely slow and arduous track across the Gulf of Mexico that will require most of the next four days or so to complete.

Make no mistake about it, this will NOT be like Hurricane Gustav was last week in which it went from Cuba to Louisiana in less than two days while trucking right along at 16 to 17 mph the whole way. Instead, Ike is going to take the leisurely scenic route, pacing himself along the way and probably building up considerable intensity in the process. The official forecast calls for Category Three major hurricane intensity in the Gulf of Mexico but I fully expect that to be ramped upward in the coming days to Category Four intensity. This is due to Ike having a very pronounced inner core and well organized symmetrical structure with good outflow, high oceanic heat content (very warm seawater temperatures) in the Gulf of Mexico and expected light winds aloft producing little to no wind shear. All of these parameters are highly conducive to intensification.

We could start seeing our first effects fom Ike around Wednesday or Thursday in the form of long-period ocean swells that will begin arriving along the upper Texas coast raising tide levels slightly at first...and perhaps higher later depending on Ike's future track.

I think it would be premature to speculate any further on Ike's destiny at this point other than to recommend that all persons along the upper Texas coast continue to monitor the future progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane during the upcoming week and be prepared to take actions necessary to protect life and property if it becomes more certain that Ike will threaten the local area. Keep your vehicle's gas tank full and have your important insurance documents on hand. Make sure you have an adequate supply of food, water and protective materials in case they are needed. If Ike becomes a more definite threat to the Texas coast, a Hurricane Watch could be issued as early as Wednesday or Thursday.

Further details on Hurricane Ike including the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center, satellite photos, map graphics and computer forecast models are contained in the Tropical Weather section below.

The JBWO is requesting your help

Dear Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory Supporters:

Over the past several months, many of you have expressed your warmest appreciation to me for the new improvements to this blog and to the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory (JBWO) web site. By far, the new JBWO West Bay web cam is the most popular new feature and the biggest hit since I introduced the LIVE weather observations on the web site back in 2007. I've had several people tell me how nice it is to be able to watch the sunset over West Bay or to see how high the tide is from their living room or office in Houston by just logging on to their computer.

Others have expressed their gratitude for the extensive local storm coverage provided by the JBWO during Hurricane Dolly and Tropical Storm Edouard late last month and earlier this month, respectively. In fact, during the Edouard landfall, the JBWO web site recorded over 6,000 hits within a 24 hour period. All of this is greatly appreciated but the JBWO is starting to fall upon hard times again and I'm requesting your help to keep this blog, the JBWO web site, the web cam and the live weather observations going strong for many years to come.

I'll cut right to the chase. Advertising sales for this blog and the JBWO web site have dramatically slowed over the past two months and I simply cannot continue to keep things going as is with less than ten advertisers. I've tried to do my part by dramatically lowering advertising rates and increasing advertising options for my prospective customers. But, so far, I'm not seeing much interest especially from local businesses. I'm now attempting to seek more business from companies located off the island but I may not be able to drum up enough before some looming financial deadlines arrive later this week and during the month of September. If this situation doesn't get turned around soon...and I mean VERY SOON, I will be forced to permanently shut everything down and issue refunds to my existing customers.

Therefore, I'm requesting your help. If you know of a business that might want to advertise with the JBWO, please have them contact me by phone at (409) 737-3122 or by e-mail at weatheralert@jbwo.org. If your referral ultimately results in an ad being purchased, I will gladly send you a 20% commission check on the full cost of the ad. The advertising rates are contained at the bottom of this section so you can see what the ads cost and how much a 20% commission would come to depending upon the type of ad purchased. There is no limit to the number of ads you can refer so this could end up being a nice source of extra income for you or someone you know. If you have any questions about this, please feel free to contact me at either of the methods mentioned above.

Although I have dilligently tried to avoid having to do this, I am also requesting any financial contribution that you might be able to help the weather station with. Any amount will help and will be greatly appreciated. Your donation will help cover the growing costs of maintaining the upkeep of this weather station including but not limited to: Internet and web site fees, cost of utilities, maintenance of computer and electronics equipment, replacement weather instrument parts, and new equipment for the future (such as additional web cams and an automated tide gauge), office supplies, etc.

I fully realize that the poor economy is hurting us all and I cannot tell you how much it stresses me out to have to make this request at a time when it seems like we are all paying more for everything. Until late last year, when several of you so generously made financial contributions, I had always paid for 100% of the costs and upkeep of this weather station out of my own pocket during the 18 years of its existence. This has amounted to thousands of dollars over the years. However, I am simply not in a financial position to continue doing this on my own and that's why I now need your help. Even though this is an official U.S. Government weather observing station, it receives absolutely no government funding of any kind. About the only thing the federal government does is inspect the weather station once a year and pay for the stamps on the envelopes that are mailed in each month from the JBWO containing the completed official government weather observation forms.

I have never considered the JBWO as MY own personal weather station. I have always considered it the COMMUNITY'S weather station and I'm just the caretaker at the moment. "Community" not only includes Jamaica Beach but every community and subdivision on Galveston Island and the nearby mainland. Interest in the JBWO is continually expanding as evidenced by nearly 500 daily subscribers to my blog from all over the Houston/Galveston area, elsewhere in Texas, Louisiana, Florida, California, Illinois, Colorado and most recently...Alaska! I even have a few subscribers in the oil business that occasionally e-mail me from various countries in the Middle East.

This weather station is an invaluable resource to you...not only from a historical data perspective but also in terms of providing you with very specific data such as the actual tides/winds/rainfall on west Galveston Island during a tropical storm/hurricane. This is information you simply cannot obtain from any other weather source including local radio and television stations.

If you'd like to make a financial contribution, please mail it to: Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory, 5166 Jamaica Beach, Jamaica Beach, TX 77554-9676. Checks or money orders should be made out to: "JBWO" or "Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory". Please include a return address so that I can send you a receipt for your records and a letter of appreciation.

I will give you an update on this situation later this week or early next week.

Best regards,

Jim O'Donnel
Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory

NEW JBWO ADVERTISING RATES

I am pleased to announce that on Friday, August 1, 2008, the following changes took effect significantly lowering the advertising rates on the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory (JBWO) web site and daily blog:

Ad Group #1   $125 monthly / $1500 annually Discounted to $1375 annually if paid in advance

Ad Group #2      $90 monthly / $1080 annually      Discounted to $990 annually if paid in advance

Ad Group #3      $70 monthly / $840 annually       Discounted to $770 annually if paid in advance

Ad Group #4      $50 monthly / $600 annually       Discounted to $550 annually if paid in advance

Ad Group #5      $30 monthly / $360 annually       Discounted to $330 annually if paid in advance

The "ad groups" referred to above are the separate blocks of ads that you see on the web site and blog page. For instance, here on the blog page, the first ad group is located between the page header and the weather maps, the second ad group is between the weather synopsis and the forecasts, the third ad group is between the forecasts and the fishing report, etc., etc.

In addition to the new lower ad rates, I will design your ad FREE OF CHARGE based on your concept and specifications or by providing me a copy of your company's letterhead, logo or business card. However, you may also use your own marketing department or the graphics artist of your choice to design your ad.

There is a one year commitment to advertise with the JBWO but this includes a "no questions asked" initial 30-day opt out period if you are not completely satisfied for any reason.

Your ad will always appear on both the web site and daily blog for the same low price and will be linked to your company's web site or your e-mail address if you don't have a web site.

All of the ad plans come with a discount of ONE FREE MONTH if the ad is purchased for the full year in advance. Or, if you prefer, you have the option of purchasing your ad on a monthly payment plan.

If you might be interested in advertising your business with the JBWO, please send an e-mail to weatheralert@jbwo.org or call 409-737-3122. I look forward to having you and your company as one of my valued customers!

NEW TODAY!!!

NFL GAME PICKS FOR WEEK NO.1
by the Jamaica Beach NFL Fan Club

Game	JRO	RKP	BMI	JSL	BMH	JDA	SVT	BLR	DLP
Washington @ NY Giants (THU)	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG
Detroit @ Atlanta	ATL	DET	DET	ATL	DET	ATL	ATL	DET	DET
Cincinnati at Baltimore	BAL	BAL	BAL	CIN	CIN	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL
Seattle at Buffalo	SEA	BUF	SEA	SEA	BUF	SEA	BUF	BUF	BUF
NY Jets at Miami	MIA	MIA	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	MIA	NYJ	NYJ
Kansas City at New England	NEN	NEN	NEN	NEN	NEN	NEN	NEN	NEN	NEN
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	TBY	NOL	NOL	NOL	TBY	NOL	NOL	TBY	NOL
St Louis at Philadelphia	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI
Houston at Pittsburgh	PIT	HOU	HOU	PIT	HOU	HOU	PIT	PIT	HOU
Jacksonville at Tennessee	JAC	JAC	JAC	JAC	JAC	JAC	TEN	JAC	JAC
Dallas at Cleveland	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL
Carolina at San Diego	SDG	SDG	SDG	SDG	SDG	SDG	SDG	SDG	SDG
Arizona at San Francisco	SFO	SFO	ARZ	ARZ	ARZ	SFO	ARZ	ARZ	SFO
Chicago at Indianapolis	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND
Minnesota at Green Bay (MON)	MIN	GRB	GRB	GRB	GRB	MIN	GRB	GRB	MIN
Denver at Oakland (MON)	DEN	DEN	DEN	OAK	OAK	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN
THIS WEEK	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0
SEASON	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-0
RANKING	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PLAYERS JRO...Jim O'Donnel JDA...John & Doris Anderson RKP...Robert & Kathy Passmore SVT...Suzie Van Tassell BMI...Bob & Margaret Immel BLR...Bobby & Lisa Riggs JSL...Jim & Stephanie Longtin DLP...Dave & Laura Palumbo BMH...Bill & Melanie Hatch

JBWO WEATHER FORECAST
for Galveston Island and beaches
from Freeport to High Island
—————————

Today: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible this afternoon. High in the upper 80's. NE to E winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms. Low near 80º. E to SE winds near 10 mph.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms. High in the upper 80's. E to SE winds near 10 mph.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low near 80º. E to SE winds at less than 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower or thunderstorm. High near 90º. E to SE winds near 10 mph.

JBWO WEATHER FORECAST
for mainland Galveston Co., inland Brazoria Co. and Harris Co. bay area

—————————

Today: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible this afternoon. High near 90º. NE to E winds near 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms. Low in the mid 70's. E to SE winds near 10 mph.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms. High near 90º. E to SE winds near 10 mph.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low in the upper 70's. E to SE winds at less than 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower or thunderstorm. High in the lower 90's. E to SE winds near 10 mph.

JBWO WEATHER FORECAST
for Metro Houston, inland Harris Co,
Fort Bend/Waller/Montgomery/Liberty Co.

—————————

Today: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible this afternoon. High in the lower 90's. NE to E winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms. Low in the lower 70's. E to SE winds near 10 mph.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms. High in the lower 90's. E to SE winds near 10 mph.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low in the lower 70's. E to SE winds at less than 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower or thunderstorm. High in the lower 90's. E to SE winds near 10 mph.

The Fishing Report

by Jim O'Donnel

No fishing reports have been received during the past week.

If you have a recent fishing report or photo you'd like to share, please send an e-mail to weatheralert@jbwo.org and your report will be posted here. Please be as specfic as you can with date/time, location, live bait or artificials used, etc. I may also post some good seafood recipes here in the future. So, if you have a good one, please send it to me and I'll be glad to share it.

Jamaica Beach Climate Data
Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
on Saturday, September 6, 2008

High temperature..... 83º F
Low temperature...... 73º F
Rainfall............. 0.00 in.
Month to date........ 0.00 in.
Year to date......... 21.86 in.
Peak wind gust....... NE 17 mph

Galveston Climate Data
Scholes International Airport
on Saturday, September 6, 2008

High temperature..... 84º F
Low temperature...... 72º F
Rainfall............. 0.00 in.
Month to date........ 0.00 in.
Year to date......... 20.76 in.
Peak wind gust....... E 18 mph

Houston Climate Data
Bush Intercontinental Airport
on Saturday, September 6, 2008

High temperature..... 91º F
Low temperature...... 65º F
Rainfall............. 0.00 in.
Month to date........ 0.08 in.
Year to date......... 27.74 in.
Peak wind gust....... N 21 mph

JBWO Marine Forecast & Tides for the Upper Texas Coast
Freeport to High Island including Galveston Bay
(marine warnings in red text are issued by the National Weather Service)

Marine Synopsis: A northward moving warm front will move onto the upper Texas coast this afternoon or this evening switching winds to a more onshore direction. Hurricane Ike is expected to enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near Havana, Cuba on Tuesday afternoon and then move very slowly WNW across the Gulf during the week. Swells from the hurricane could start arriving along the upper Texas coast by Wednesday or Thursday increasing tide levels. The hurricane is forecast to approach the Texas or Louisiana coast next weekend. Mariners should monitor all future advisories on this system from the National Hurricane Center.

Lower Galveston Bay
West Bay and East Bay
Lower Houston Ship Channel
Port of Galveston/Port of Texas City
(south of Eagle Point to Smith Point)
—————————

Today: NE to E winds at 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Winds and bay waters higher in and near thunderstorms.

Tonight: E to SE winds near 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and bay waters higher in and near thunderstorms.

Monday: E to SE winds near 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and bay waters higher in and near thunderstorms.

Monday night: E to SE winds at less than 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.

Tuesday: E to SE winds near 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.

Upper Galveston Bay
Trinity Bay and Clear Lake
Upper Houston Ship Channel
Port of Houston/Bayport Terminal
(north of Eagle Point to Smith Point)
—————————

Gulf of Mexico
Nearshore and Offshore Waters
from Freeport to High Island
(beaches out to 50 NM offshore)
—————————

Today: NE to E winds at 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas higher in and near thunderstorms.

Tonight: E to SE winds near 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas higher in and near thunderstorms.

Monday: E to SE winds near 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas higher in and near thunderstorms.

Monday night: E to SE winds at less than 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet.

Tuesday: E to SE winds near 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.